It predicts the world will have warmed on average by 2☌, or 3.6☏, by roughly 2040. RCP 8.5 presumes that the world will continue increasing energy use at the same rate and in the same forms. The scenario we examined is known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, one standardized set of assumptions of humanity’s trajectory in the coming years. With help from researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, we built our analysis on the Localized Constructed Analogs data set, which draws on 32 different global climate models. This offers us the best possible estimate on how much winters and summers will shift from 2000 to 2050. To answer the question of how much temperatures in US cities will change by 2050, we looked at the average summer high and winter low temperatures in 1,000 cities in the continental US, comparing recorded and modeled temperatures from 1986 to 2015 to projections for 2036 to 2065. A problem like climate change was wrought by humanity, and its solutions must come from us too. We can start planning and preparing now for the warmer future. Read our story about a new climate voter’s guide and consider the political changes we’ll need too.Īs individuals, we can buy less, fly less, drive less, and eat less meat and dairy. This means immediately accelerating all the tools we already are using to decarbonize the energy system, and developing many new ones, like better technologies to remove carbon from the atmosphere. But we still have a real shot at limiting it to 2☌ or 3☌. Continued high emissions portend even more alarming changes to the planet by 2100 - with warming upward of 4☌, or 7.2☏. It will take years, probably decades, for the climate system to fully register the greenhouse gases we’ve already emitted, are still emitting, and will emit in the coming years.īut as the IPCC argues, it’s essential that we take every possible step now to reduce emissions to avoid the worst outcomes in the coming decades and centuries. And many scientists believe we’ve already made irreversible changes, that we are already on course for at least 2☌, or 3.6☏, of warming by midcentury. That would take an unprecedented international effort.
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